Routes of importation and spatial dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 variants during localised interventions in Chile (preprint)

South America suffered large SARS-CoV-2 epidemics between 2020 and 2022 caused by multiple variants of interest and concern, some causing substantial morbidity and mortality. However, their transmission dynamics are poorly characterised. The epidemic situation in Chile enables us to investigate differences in the distribution and spread of variants Alpha, Gamma, Lambda, Mu and Delta. Chile implemented non-pharmaceutical interventions and an integrated genomic and epidemiological surveillance system that included airport and community surveillance to track SARS-CoV-2 variants. Here we combine viral genomic data and anonymised human mobility data from mobile phones to characterise the routes of importation of different variants into Chile, the relative contributions of airport-based importations to viral diversity versus land border crossings and test the impact of the mobility network on the diffusion of viral lineages within the country. We find that Alpha, Lambda and Mu were identified in Chile via airport surveillance six, four and five weeks ahead of their detection via community surveillance, respectively. Further, some variants that originated in South America were imported into Chile via land rather than international air travel, most notably Gamma. Different variants exhibited similar trends of viral dissemination throughout the country following their importation, and we show that the mobility network predicts the time of arrival of imported lineages to different Chilean comunas. Higher stringency of local NPIs was also associated with fewer domestic viral importations. Our results show how genomic surveillance combined with high resolution mobility data can help predict the multi-scale geographic expansion of emerging infectious diseases. Significance statementGlobal preparedness for pandemic threats requires an understanding of the global variations of spatiotemporal transmission dynamics. Regional differences are important because the local context sets the conditions for the unfolding of local epidemics, which in turn affect transmission dynamics at a broader scale. Knowledge gaps from the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic remain for regions like South America, where distinct sets of viral variants emerged and spread from late 2020 onwards, and where changes in human behaviour resulted in epidemics which differed from those observed in other regions. Our interdisciplinary analysis of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in Chile provides insights into the spatiotemporal trends of viral diffusion in the region which shed light on the drivers that can influence future epidemic waves and pandemics.

COVID-19 pandemic re-shaped the global dispersal of seasonal influenza viruses (preprint)

Understanding how the global dispersal patterns of seasonal influenza viruses were perturbed during and after the COVID-19 pandemic is needed to inform influenza intervention and vaccination strategies in the post-pandemic period. Although global human mobility has been identified as a key driver of influenza dispersal1, alongside climatic and evolutionary factors2,3, the impact of international travel restrictions on global influenza transmission and recovery remains unknown. Here we combine molecular, epidemiological, climatic, and international travel data within a phylodynamic framework to show that, despite human mobility remaining the principal driver of global influenza virus dissemination, the pandemics onset led to a shift in the international population structure and migration network of seasonal influenza lineages. We find that South Asia and Africa played important roles as exporters and phylogenetic trunk locations of influenza in 2020 and 2021, and we highlight the association between population movement, antigenic drift and persistence during the intensive non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) phase. The influenza B/Yamagata lineage disappeared in a context of reduced relative genetic diversity, moderate lineage turnover, and lower positive selection pressure. Our results demonstrate that mobility perturbations reshaped the global dispersal dynamics of influenza viruses, with potential implications for vaccine design and genomic surveillance programmes. As the risk of future pandemics persists, our study provides an opportunity to assess the impact of NPIs during the pandemic on respiratory infectious diseases beyond the interplay between SARS-CoV-2 and influenza viruses.

Recommendations on the Management of Patients with Immune Thrombocytopenia (ITP) in the Context of SARS-CoV-2 Infection and Vaccination: Consensus Guidelines from a Spanish ITP Expert Group.

Primary immune thrombocytopenia (ITP) is an acquired autoimmune disease with highly variable presentation, characteristics, and clinical course. Thrombocytopenia is a common complication of many viral infections, including SARS-CoV-2. In addition, both de novo ITP and exacerbation of ITP after vaccination against SARS-CoV-2 have been reported. Patients infected with SARS-CoV-2 develop a prothrombotic coagulopathy called COVID-19-associated coagulopathy (CAC). In addition, autoimmune hematological disorders secondary to SARS-CoV-2 infection, mainly ITP and autoimmune hemolytic anemia (AIHA), have been described. Furthermore, SARS-CoV-2 infection has been associated with exacerbation of autoimmune processes, including ITP. In fact, there is evidence of a high relapse rate in patients with preexisting ITP and COVID-19. As for vaccination against SARS-CoV-2, hematological adverse events (HAE) are practically anecdotal. The most common HAE is thrombocytopenia-associated thrombosis syndrome (TTS) linked to vectored virus vaccines. Other HAEs are very rare, but should be considered in patients with previous complement activation disease or autoimmunity. In patients with ITP who are vaccinated against SARS-CoV-2, the main complication is exacerbation of ITP and the bleeding that may result. In fact, this complication occurs in 12% of patients, with splenectomized and refractory patients with more than five lines of previous treatment and platelet counts below 50 × 109/L being the most vulnerable. We conclude that, in general, there is no greater risk of severe SARS-CoV-2 infection in ITP patients than in the general population. Furthermore, no changes are advised in patients with stable ITP, the use of immunosuppressants is discouraged unless there is no other therapeutic option, and patients with ITP are not contraindicated for vaccination against COVID-19.

Spatial scales of COVID-19 transmission in Mexico (preprint)

During outbreaks of emerging infectious diseases, internationally connected cities often experience large and early outbreaks, while rural regions follow after some delay. This hierarchical structure of disease spread is influenced primarily by the multiscale structure of human mobility. However, during the COVID-19 epidemic, public health responses typically did not take into consideration the explicit spatial structure of human mobility when designing non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). NPIs were applied primarily at national or regional scales. Here we use weekly anonymized and aggregated human mobility data and spatially highly resolved data on COVID-19 cases, deaths and hospitalizations at the municipality level in Mexico to investigate how behavioural changes in response to the pandemic have altered the spatial scales of transmission and interventions during its first wave (March - June 2020). We find that the epidemic dynamics in Mexico were initially driven by SARS-CoV-2 exports from Mexico State and Mexico City, where early outbreaks occurred. The mobility network shifted after the implementation of interventions in late March 2020, and the mobility network communities became more disjointed while epidemics in these communities became increasingly synchronised. Our results provide actionable and dynamic insights into how to use network science and epidemiological modelling to inform the spatial scale at which interventions are most impactful in mitigating the spread of COVID-19 and infectious diseases in general.

Genomic assessment of invasion dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BA.1 (preprint)

SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern (VOCs) arise against the backdrop of increasingly heterogeneous human connectivity and population immunity. Through a large-scale phylodynamic analysis of 115,622 Omicron genomes, we identified >6,000 independent introductions of the antigenically distinct virus into England and reconstructed the dispersal history of resulting local transmission. Travel restrictions on southern Africa did not reduce BA.1 importation intensity as secondary hubs became major exporters. We explored potential drivers of BA.1 spread across England and discovered an early period during which viral lineage movements mainly occurred between larger cities, followed by a multi-focal spatial expansion shaped by shorter distance mobility patterns. We also found evidence that disease incidence impacted human commuting behaviours around major travel hubs. Our results offer a detailed characterisation of processes that drive the invasion of an emerging VOC across multiple spatial scales and provide unique insights on the interplay between disease spread and human mobility.

Comparing the evolutionary dynamics of predominant SARS-CoV-2 virus lineages co-circulating in Mexico (preprint)

Up to November 2021, over 200 different SARS-CoV-2 lineages circulated in Mexico. To investigate lineage replacement dynamics, we applied a phylodynamic approach to explore the evolutionary trajectories of five dominant lineages that circulated during the first year of the local epidemic. For most lineages, peaks in sampling frequencies coincided with different epidemiological waves of infection in the country. Lineages B.1.1.222 and B.1.1.519 showed comparable dynamics, represented by clades likely originating in Mexico and persisting for over a year. Lineages B.1.1.7, P.1 and B.1.617.2 also displayed similar dynamics, characterized by multiple introduction events leading to a few successful extended local transmission chains that persisted for several months. We further explored viral movements across the country, applied within the largest clades identified (belonging to lineage B.1.617.2). Many clades were located within the south region of the country, suggesting that this area played a key role in the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Mexico.

Comparing the evolutionary dynamics of predominant SARS-CoV-2 virus lineages co-circulating in Mexico (preprint)

Up to November 2021, over 200 different SARS-CoV-2 lineages circulated in Mexico. To investigate lineage replacement dynamics, we applied a phylodynamic approach to explore the evolutionary trajectories of five dominant lineages that circulated during the first year of the local epidemic. For most lineages, peaks in sampling frequencies coincided with different epidemiological waves of infection in the country. Lineages B.1.1.222 and B.1.1.519 showed comparable dynamics, represented by clades likely originating in Mexico and persisting for over a year. Lineages B.1.1.7, P.1 and B.1.617.2 also displayed similar dynamics, characterized by multiple introduction events leading to a few successful extended local transmission chains that persisted for several months. We further explored viral movements across the country, applied within the largest clades identified (belonging to lineage B.1.617.2). Many clades were located within the south region of the country, suggesting that this area played a key role in the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Mexico.

Emergence and widespread circulation of a recombinant SARS-CoV-2 lineage in North America (preprint)

Genetic recombination is an important driving force of coronavirus evolution. While some degree of virus recombination has been reported during the COVID-19 pandemic, previously detected recombinant lineages of SARS-CoV-2 have shown limited circulation and been observed only in restricted areas. Prompted by reports of unusual genetic similarities among several Pango lineages detected mainly in North and Central America, we present a detailed phylogenetic analysis of four SARS-CoV-2 lineages (B.1.627, B.1.628, B.1.631 and B.1.634) in order to investigate the possibility of virus recombination among them. Two of these lineages, B.1.628 and B.1.631, are split into two distinct clusters (here named major and minor). Our phylogenetic and recombination analyses of these lineages find well-supported phylogenetic differences between the Orf1ab region and the rest of the genome (S protein and remaining reading frames). The lineages also contain several deletions in the NSP6, Orf3a and S proteins that can augment reconstruction of reliable evolutionary histories. By reconciling the deletions and phylogenetic data, we conclude that the B.1.628 major cluster originated from a recombination event between a B.1.631 major virus and a lineage B.1.634 virus. This scenario inferred from genetic data is supported by the spatial and temporal distribution of the three lineages, which all co-circulated in the USA and Mexico during 2021, suggesting this region is where the recombination event took place. We therefore support the designation of the B.1.628 major cluster as recombinant lineage XB in the Pango nomenclature. The widespread circulation of lineage XB across multiple countries over a longer timespan than the previously designated recombinant XA lineage raises important questions regarding the role and potential effects of recombination on the evolution of SARS-CoV-2 during the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic.

Report 46: Factors driving extensive spatial and temporal fluctuations in COVID-19 fatality rates in Brazilian hospitals (preprint)

The SARS-CoV-2 Gamma variant spread rapidly across Brazil, causing substantial infection and death waves. We use individual-level patient records following hospitalisation with suspected or confirmed COVID-19 to document the extensive shocks in hospital fatality rates that followed Gamma’s spread across 14 state capitals, and in which more than half of hospitalised patients died over sustained time periods. We show that extensive fluctuations in COVID-19 in-hospital fatality rates also existed prior to Gamma’s detection, and were largely transient after Gamma’s detection, subsiding with hospital demand. Using a Bayesian fatality rate model, we find that the geographic and temporal fluctuations in Brazil’s COVID-19 in-hospital fatality rates are primarily associated with geographic inequities and shortages in healthcare capacity. We project that approximately half of Brazil’s COVID-19 deaths in hospitals could have been avoided without pre-pandemic geographic inequities and without pandemic healthcare pressure. Our results suggest that investments in healthcare resources, healthcare optimization, and pandemic preparedness are critical to minimize population wide mortality and morbidity caused by highly transmissible and deadly pathogens such as SARS-CoV-2, especially in low- and middle-income countries. Note The following manuscript has appeared as ‘Report 46 - Factors driving extensive spatial and temporal fluctuations in COVID-19 fatality rates in Brazilian hospitals’ at https://spiral.imperial.ac.uk:8443/handle/10044/1/91875 . One sentence summary COVID-19 in-hospital fatality rates fluctuate dramatically in Brazil, and these fluctuations are primarily associated with geographic inequities and shortages in healthcare capacity.

Identification of site-specific evolutionary trajectories shared across human betacoronaviruses (preprint)

Comparison of evolution among related viruses can provide insights into shared adaptive processes, for example following host switching to a mutual host species. Whilst phylogenetic methods can help identify mutations that may be important for evolutionary processes such as adaptation to a new host, these can be enhanced by positioning candidate mutations to known functional sites on protein structures. Over the past two decades, three zoonotic betacoronaviruses have significantly impacted human public health: SARS-CoV-1, MERS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2, whilst two other betacoronaviruses, HKU1 and OC43, have circulated endemically in the human population for over 100 years. In this study, we use a comparative approach to prospectively search for potentially evolutionarily-relevant mutations within the Orf1ab and S genes across betacoronavirus species that have demonstrated sustained human-to-human transmission (HKU1, OC43, SARS-CoV-1 and SARS-CoV-2). We used a combination of molecular evolution methods to identify 30 sites that display evidence of homoplasy and/or stepwise evolution, that may be suggestive of adaptation across emerging and endemic betacoronaviruses. Of these, seven sites also display evidence of being selectively relevant. Drawing upon known protein structure data, we find that four of the identified mutations [18121 (exonuclease/27), 21623 (spike/21), 21635 (spike/25) and 23948 (spike/796), in SARS-CoV-2 genome coordinates] are proximal to regions of known functionality. Our results provide a molecular-level context for common evolutionary pathways that betacoronaviruses may undergo during adaptation to the human host.

Genomic epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 transmission lineages in Ecuador (preprint)

Characterisation of SARS-CoV-2 genetic diversity through space and time can reveal trends in virus importation and domestic circulation, and permit the exploration of questions regarding the early transmission dynamics. Here we present a detailed description of SARS-CoV-2 genomic epidemiology in Ecuador, one of the hardest hit countries during the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic. We generate and analyse 160 whole genome sequences sampled from all provinces of Ecuador in 2020. Molecular clock and phylgeographic analysis of these sequences in the context of global SARS-CoV-2 diversity enable us to identify and characterise individual transmission lineages within Ecuador, explore their spatiotemporal distributions, and consider their introduction and domestic circulation. Our results reveal a pattern of multiple international importations across the country, with apparent differences between key provinces. Transmission lineages were mostly introduced before the implementation of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), with differential degrees of persistence and national dissemination.

SARS-CoV-2 genome sequencing from COVID-19 in Ecuadorian patients: a whole country analysis. (preprint)

SARS-CoV-2, the etiological agent of COVID-19, was first described in Wuhan, China in December 2019 and has now spread globally. Ecuador was the second country in South America to confirm cases and Guayaquil was one of the first cities in the world to experience high mortality due to COVID-19. The aim of this study was to describe the lineages circulating throughout the country and to compare the mutations in local variants, to the reference strain. In this work we used the MinION platform (Oxford Nanopore Technologies) to sequence the whole SARS-CoV-2 genomes of 119 patients from all provinces of Ecuador, using the ARTIC network protocols. Our data from lineage assignment of the one hundred and nineteen whole genomes revealed twenty different lineages. All genomes presented differences in the S gene compared to the Wuhan reference strain, being the D614G amino acid replacement the most common change. The B.1.1.119 lineage was the most frequent and was found in several locations in the Coast and Andean region. Three sequences were assigned to the new B.1.1.7 lineage. Our work is an important contribution to the understanding of the epidemiology of SARS- CoV-2 in Ecuador and South America.

Tracking changes in reporting of epidemiological data during the COVID-19 pandemic in Southeast Asia: an observational study during the first wave (preprint)

Background When a new pathogen emerges, consistent case reporting is critical for public health surveillance. Tracking cases geographically and over time is key for understanding the spread of an infectious disease and how to effectively design interventions to contain and mitigate an epidemic. In this paper we describe the reporting systems on COVID-19 in Southeast Asia during the first wave in 2020, and highlight the impact of specific reporting methods. Methods We reviewed key epidemiological variables from various sources including a regionally comprehensive dataset, national trackers, dashboards, and case bulletins for 11 countries during the first wave of the epidemic in Southeast Asia. We recorded timelines of shifts in epidemiological reporting systems. We further described the differences in how epidemiological data are reported across countries and timepoints, and the accessibility of epidemiological data. Findings Our findings suggest that countries in Southeast Asia generally reported precise and detailed epidemiological data during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. However, changes in reporting were frequent and varied across data and countries. Changes in reporting rarely occurred for demographic data such as age and sex, while reporting shifts for geographic and temporal data were frequent. We also found that most countries provided COVID-19 individual-level data daily using HTML and PDF, necessitating scraping and extraction before data could be used in analyses. Interpretation Countries have different reporting systems and different capacities for maintaining consistent reporting of epidemiological data. As the pandemic progresses, governments may also change their priorities in data sharing. Our study thus highlights the importance of more nuanced analyses of epidemiological data of COVID-19 within and across countries because of the frequent shifts in reporting. Further, most countries provide data on a daily basis but not always in a readily usable format. As governments continue to respond to the impacts of COVID-19 on health and the economy, data sharing also needs to be prioritised given its foundational role in policymaking, and the implementation and evaluation of interventions. Funding The work was supported through an Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) (https://epsrc.ukri.org/) Systems Biology studentship award (EP/G03706X/1) to TR. This project was also supported in part by the Oxford Martin School. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.

Establishment & lineage dynamics of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in the UK (preprint)

The UK's COVID-19 epidemic during early 2020 was one of world's largest and unusually well represented by virus genomic sampling. Here we reveal the fine-scale genetic lineage structure of this epidemic through analysis of 50,887 SARS-CoV-2 genomes, including 26,181 from the UK sampled throughout the country's first wave of infection. Using large-scale phylogenetic analyses, combined with epidemiological and travel data, we quantify the size, spatio-temporal origins and persistence of genetically-distinct UK transmission lineages. Rapid fluctuations in virus importation rates resulted in >1000 lineages; those introduced prior to national lockdown were larger and more dispersed. Lineage importation and regional lineage diversity declined after lockdown, whilst lineage elimination was size-dependent. We discuss the implications of our genetic perspective on transmission dynamics for COVID-19 epidemiology and control.

COVID-19 Re-Infection by a Phylogenetically Distinct SARS-CoV-2 Variant, First Confirmed Event in South America. (preprint)

The permanence of rt-PCR positivity after a long time in COVID-19 patients has prompted the question of whether SARS-CoV-2 could cause a persistent infection or patients can become re-infected by this virus. Both possibilities could have critical implications for the management and control of COVID-19. Here we present the first confirmed case of SARS-CoV-2 reinfection in Ecuador and South America. Materials and methods: Our diagnostic laboratory detected a potential re-infection in one patient who was SARS-COv2 rt-PCR positive twice (in May and July 2020). The first laboratory-confirmed infection presented with mild symptoms and full recovery, reaffirmed by a negative RT-PCR test result obtained two weeks after symptom onset. More severe COVID-19-like symptoms presented again four weeks after the first event, and a third RT-PCR test was performed which resulted positive. The total RNA extraction (from the samples collected on both occasions) was sequenced in an Oxford Nanopore MinION using a tilling PCR protocol developed by the ARTIC-Network, and the reads were analyzed using the artic-medaka consensus generation tool. Anti SARS-CoV-2 IgM and IgG antibodies were investigated. Results: different SARS-CoV-2 variants were identified in each infection event. For the first infection, the genome was assigned to the B1.p9 GISAID clade while the variant associated with the second episode was assigned to the A.1.1 GISAID clade. High levels of both SARS-CoV-2 specific IgM and IgG were observed during the second event.Discussion: a patient with two COVID-19 events presented two different SARS-CoV-2 variants on each event, confirming reinfection. This phenomenon is still considered rare.

Genome sequencing of the first SARS-CoV-2 reported from patients with COVID-19 in Ecuador. (preprint)

SARS-CoV-2, the etiological agent of COVID-19 was first described in Wuhan in December 2019 and has now spread globally. Ecuador was the second country in South America to report confirmed cases. The first case reported in Quito, the capital city of Ecuador, was a tourist who came from the Netherlands and presented symptoms on March 10th, 2020 (index case). In this work we used the MinION platform (Oxford Nanopore Technologies) to sequence the metagenome of the bronchoalveolar lavage (BAL) from this case reported, and subsequently we sequenced the whole genome of the index case and other three patients using the ARTIC network protocols. Our data from the metagenomic approach confirmed the presence of SARS-CoV-2 coexisting with pathogenic bacteria suggesting coinfection. Relevant bacteria found in the BAL metagenome were Streptococcus pneumoniae, Mycobacterium tuberculosis, Staphylococcus aureus and Chlamydia spp. Lineage assignment of the four whole genomes revealed three different origins. The variant HEE-01 was imported from the Netherlands and was assigned to B lineage, HGSQ-USFQ-018, belongs to the B.1 lineage showing nine nucleotide differences with the reference strain and grouped with sequences from the United Kingdom, and HGSQ-USFQ-007 and HGSQ-USFQ-010 belong to the B lineage and grouped with sequences from Scotland. All genomes show mutations in their genomes compared to the reference strain, which could be important to understand the virulence, severity and transmissibility of the virus. Our findings also suggest that there were at least three independent introductions of SARS-CoV-2 to Ecuador.

Epidemiological and clinical characteristics of the early phase of the COVID-19 epidemic in Brazil (preprint)

BackgroundThe first case of COVID-19 was detected in Brazil on February 25, 2020. We report the epidemiological, demographic, and clinical findings for confirmed COVID-19 cases during the first month of the epidemic in Brazil. MethodsIndividual-level and aggregated COVID-19 data were analysed to investigate demographic profiles, socioeconomic drivers and age-sex structure of COVID-19 tested cases. Basic reproduction numbers (R0) were investigated for Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro. Multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to identify symptoms associated with confirmed cases and risk factors associated with hospitalization. Laboratory diagnosis for eight respiratory viruses were obtained for 2,429 cases. FindingsBy March 25, 1,468 confirmed cases were notified in Brazil, of whom 10% (147 of 1,468) were hospitalised. Of the cases acquired locally (77{middle dot}8%), two thirds (66{middle dot}9% of 5,746) were confirmed in private laboratories. Overall, positive association between higher per capita income and COVID-19 diagnosis was identified. The median age of detected cases was 39 years (IQR 30-53). The median R0 was 2{middle dot}9 for Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro. Cardiovascular disease/hypertension were associated with hospitalization. Co-circulation of six respiratory viruses, including influenza A and B and human rhinovirus was detected in low levels. InterpretationSocioeconomic disparity determines access to SARS-CoV-2 testing in Brazil. The lower median age of infection and hospitalization compared to other countries is expected due to a younger population structure. Enhanced surveillance of respiratory pathogens across socioeconomic statuses is essential to better understand and halt SARS-CoV-2 transmission. FundingSao Paulo Research Foundation, Medical Research Council, Wellcome Trust and Royal Society.

Crowding and the epidemic intensity of COVID-19 transmission (preprint)

The COVID-19 pandemic is straining public health systems worldwide and major non-pharmaceutical interventions have been implemented to slow its spread. During the initial phase of the outbreak the spread was primarily determined by human mobility. Yet empirical evidence on the effect of key geographic factors on local epidemic spread is lacking. We analyse highly-resolved spatial variables for cities in China together with case count data in order to investigate the role of climate, urbanization, and variation in interventions across China. Here we show that the epidemic intensity of COVID-19 is strongly shaped by crowding, such that epidemics in dense cities are more spread out through time, and denser cities have larger total incidence. Observed differences in epidemic intensity are well captured by a metapopulation model of COVID-19 that explicitly accounts for spatial hierarchies. Densely-populated cities worldwide may experience more prolonged epidemics. Whilst stringent interventions can shorten the time length of these local epidemics, although these may be difficult to implement in many affected settings.

The effect of human mobility and control measures on the COVID-19 epidemic in China (preprint)

The ongoing COVID-19 outbreak has expanded rapidly throughout China. Major behavioral, clinical, and state interventions are underway currently to mitigate the epidemic and prevent the persistence of the virus in human populations in China and worldwide. It remains unclear how these unprecedented interventions, including travel restrictions, have affected COVID-19 spread in China. We use real-time mobility data from Wuhan and detailed case data including travel history to elucidate the role of case importation on transmission in cities across China and ascertain the impact of control measures. Early on, the spatial distribution of COVID-19 cases in China was well explained by human mobility data. Following the implementation of control measures, this correlation dropped and growth rates became negative in most locations, although shifts in the demographics of reported cases are still indicative of local chains of transmission outside Wuhan. This study shows that the drastic control measures implemented in China have substantially mitigated the spread of COVID-19.

Preparedness and vulnerability of African countries against introductions of 2019-nCoV (preprint)

The novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) epidemic has spread to 23 countries from China. Local cycles of transmission already occurred in 7 countries following case importation. No African country has reported cases yet. The management and control of 2019-nCoV introductions heavily relies on the public health capacity of a country. Here we evaluate the preparedness and vulnerability of African countries against their risk of importation of 2019-nCoV. We used data on air travel volumes departing from airports in the infected provinces in China and directed to Africa to estimate the risk of introduction per country. We determined the countries capacity to detect and respond to cases with two indicators: preparedness, using the WHO International Health Regulation Monitoring and Evaluation Framework; and vulnerability, with the Infectious Disease Vulnerability Index. Countries were clustered according to the Chinese regions contributing the most to their risk. Findings: Countries at the highest importation risk (Egypt, Algeria, Republic of South Africa) have moderate to high capacity to respond to outbreaks. Countries at moderate risk (Nigeria, Ethiopia, Sudan, Angola, Tanzania, Ghana, Kenya) have variable capacity and high vulnerability. Three clusters of countries are identified that share the same exposure to the risk originating from the provinces of Guangdong, Fujian, and Beijing, respectively. Interpretation: Several countries in Africa are stepping up their preparedness to detect and cope with 2019-nCoV importations. Resources and intensified surveillance and capacity capacity should be urgently prioritized towards countries at moderate risk that may be ill-prepared to face the importation and to limit onward transmission.